Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 1.955638 2.068175 2.186216 2.319689 2.466937 2.625017 2.808358
2025-09-14 1.767709 1.920579 2.088288 2.287410 2.519356 2.783518 3.110830
2025-09-21 1.641513 1.815177 2.011453 2.252399 2.544061 2.890949 3.343104
2025-09-28 1.541294 1.726983 1.941623 2.212001 2.549414 2.965154 3.530727
2025-10-05 1.496791 1.698543 1.936904 2.244931 2.641359 3.148069 3.869730
2025-10-12 1.460336 1.675822 1.935402 2.278698 2.733285 3.334902 4.231075
2025-10-19 1.425619 1.652151 1.929775 2.304655 2.814209 3.510978 4.595075
2025-10-26 1.379300 1.610966 1.898801 2.294057 2.842966 3.614414 4.860675
2025-11-02 1.337204 1.572725 1.868986 2.282090 2.867282 3.711228 5.125040
2025-11-09 1.293186 1.529858 1.830675 2.255627 2.867974 3.771268 5.334618
2025-11-16 1.251897 1.488723 1.792541 2.226797 2.862371 3.819745 5.528568
2025-11-23 1.225220 1.465505 1.776999 2.228200 2.900500 3.938227 5.860002
2025-11-30 1.203170 1.448027 1.768996 2.240627 2.957187 4.093557 6.288173
2025-12-07 1.167321 1.410861 1.732563 2.210020 2.945470 4.134638 6.503180
2025-12-14 1.132953 1.374505 1.695781 2.176904 2.927299 4.162442 6.694780
2025-12-21 1.098948 1.337575 1.656837 2.138673 2.898390 4.168677 6.841674
2025-12-28 1.089714 1.334007 1.664314 2.169838 2.982828 4.382232 7.475784
2026-01-04 1.081243 1.331050 1.672293 2.201780 3.070245 4.609886 8.194659
2026-01-11 1.070929 1.325090 1.675560 2.226322 3.146517 4.824517 8.937437
2026-01-18 1.050899 1.304885 1.657398 2.216303 3.162334 4.922648 9.404267
2026-01-25 1.031497 1.285007 1.639010 2.204988 3.174919 5.015188 9.879627
2026-02-01 1.009113 1.260321 1.612774 2.179958 3.161457 5.052737 10.207203
2026-02-08 0.987085 1.235622 1.585812 2.152678 3.142327 5.076581 10.501147